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How many packs until the hit?

Courtyard publishes a 0.10% chance of a $276+ pull from its $69 pack. See what that means over a session, for 13 apps' published odds.

Work out my chase

By Alexander Korsager · Checked 6 October 2026 · We earn nothing from any app on this site

Courtyard logoPokémon PSA 10$69$276+ pull1 in 1,000 packs
Packs opened
9.5%
chance of one $276+ pull or more
$6,900
spent on 100 packs

Work out a chase

13 packs carry odds bands read on 7 October 2026. A hit is a pull at or above a value the app itself publishes a chance for.

1. The app and its pack
2. The hit: a pull worth at least
One hit or more
96%
a $138+ pull in 100 packs
No hit at all
4.3%
every pack misses
Spent on packs
$6,900
100 × $69
0%50%90%100 packs: 96%0106 packsRings: 50%, 90% and 95% chance of a hit

What a $138+ pull costs to chase

50% chance
$1,587
23 packs
90% chance
$5,106
74 packs
95% chance
$6,624
96 packs

Spend on packs, before the value of the other cards pulled on the way. The published chance is 3.1% a pack, about 1 in 32. That is an average, not a deadline: a 95% chance takes 96 packs.

The dry streak to expect in 100 packs

51+misses in a row, more likely than not
97+in a row for 1 session in 20
Shaded: the likely longest run with no $138+ pull, out of 100 packs. A streak this long is what the published odds predict, not a sign they changed.
Odds read on 6 October 2026 from Courtyard:Pokémon PSA 10 pack pageNo commissionCourtyard says its odds move in real time or as packs are opened, so this is the table as read, not a promise about tomorrow's. Each pull is treated as independent.

This counts hits, not money. To see where a budget ends up once every pull is sold back, deal sessions in the pack simulator.

Every top band, side by side

The rarest pull each pack publishes a chance for, and what an even chance of one costs in packs. Cheapest chase first.

rated apps with odds bands on record13 of 27
a pack, the rarest top band: Tilt Rips0.09%
dearest even chance, at Courtyard$47,817
Each pack's top published band: its chance and the packs and spend for an even chance of one
PackTop bandEven chance90% chance
Fanatics Instant Rips$25 · Pokemon Value$80+1 in 91$1,57563 packs$5,225
Phygitals$25 · Rookie Pack (Pokémon)$150+1 in 100$1,72569 packs$5,750
Slabz$25 · Poké 25$125+1 in 100$1,72569 packs$5,750
Collector Crypt$50 · Elite Pokémon Gacha Pack$250+1 in 100$3,45069 packs$11,500
Lastpack$5 · Starter Pack (Steady)$40+1 in 1,000$3,465693 packs$11,510
DOPA$18 · Tag-Team Titans!$108+1 in 400$4,986277 packs$16,560
RipRip.io$10.99 · All-Stars Pokémon Booster ($10 plus a $0.99 service fee)$100+1 in 1,000$7,616693 packs$25,299
Repackz$25 · Pokémon Starter Pack$100+1 in 667$11,550462 packs$38,350
Beezie$50 · Silver$751+1 in 400$13,850277 packs$46,000
Packz$25 · Pokémon Starter Pack$250+1 in 1,000$17,325693 packs$57,550
MNSTR$50 · Starter$500+1 in 500$17,350347 packs$57,550
Tilt Rips$25 · Starter Pack$250+1 in 1,111$19,250770 packs$63,950
Courtyard$69 · Pokémon PSA 10$276+1 in 1,000$47,817693 packs$158,838

Top bands are not alike: they start anywhere from $40 to $751. Read a row as the price of that app's own headline pull, not as a ranking. Each pack page is in the sources below.

Bad luck, or have the odds turned?

“1 in 1,000” does not mean a hit inside 1,000 packs. Here is how often the published odds leave a chaser with nothing.

Still no $276+ pull at Courtyard, after

  • 1,000 packs$69,000 spent37%
  • 2,000 packs$138,000 spent14%
  • 3,000 packs$207,000 spent5%

The same three shares hold for any rare hit: about 37% of chasers have nothing after the “1 in N” number of packs, about 14% after twice that, and about 5% after three times.

The table stays as read

6 of 13of the apps in the tool say their odds move in real time or as packs are opened. A table read today may not be the one you play tomorrow.

Each pull is independent

AssumedWhere packs draw from a fixed pool of cards, a hit pulled by someone else leaves the pool and the chance moves.

The app deals at its table

Not checkedThis page shows what the published odds imply. It cannot check that any app deals at them, and it does not say that one does or does not.

So a dry streak is weak evidence either way. What an app has put in writing about its odds, its entity and its payouts is on the legitimacy guide. If a chase is running past what you planned to spend, the responsible play page has a budget tool and shows which apps publish a way to lock yourself out.

Apps this cannot run

The sum needs a chance per value band on a public page. 14 of the 27 rated apps have none on record here.

apps in the tool, one pack each13
publish odds the sum cannot use87 give a chance per card or per named rarity. 1 has value bands that were not read.
show odds only inside the app4
odds not confirmed on a public page2

One pack per app is on record, read once. Other packs on the same app carry other odds, so check the table on the pack you are about to open. How each app's odds are scored is on the rating method page.

Questions people ask

How many packs does it take to pull a hit?

It depends on the chance per pack. At 0.10%, about 1 in 1,000, an even chance takes 693 packs and a 95% chance takes 2,995. No number of packs makes a hit certain.

Does a long losing streak mean the odds changed?

Not by itself. The tool shows the longest run of misses that the published odds make likely in a session, and for a rare hit that run is long. A streak cannot tell you whether an app deals at its table. A changed odds table can, so keep a dated copy of the one you played.

Does the chance go up after a run of misses?

The sum assumes it does not: every pack has the same chance as the one before. If an app publishes a rule that raises the chance after misses, its own rule overrides this page.

Why can I not pick a specific card?

Most apps publish a chance per value band, not per card, so the tool chases a pull worth a stated amount or more. Where an app lists every card in a pack, the pull checklist shows them.

Alexander Korsager

Alexander Korsager

Every figure was read on public pages on 6 October 2026. Nothing here has been tested with money yet. The odds bands come from each app's public pack page, one pack per app. The losing-run sum is checked in code against a count of every possible session.